Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an highly divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but very few politicians or advocates want to engage even with the basics. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. They writes two articles that aim for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments cover identity markers, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the idea that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has has valuable insights to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster should join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
